Both industry and government officials believe that, with the rapid growth in sales of electric vehicles, battery cost will be getting lower and lower. However, a large number of scientists and engineers in the automotive disagreed. They think, and tires and toasters, batteries and can not enjoy the advantages of economies of scale.
Mass production experts say the battery will cause metal prices high, even in the short term will be increased. Electronic components, batteries and related accessories prices in the short term is unlikely to fall.
It is reported, the United States Department of energy plan in 2014, put the battery cost is reduced to 70% in 2009.
Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University Jay Whitacre battery technology mentioned in the interview, the government's goal is the direction of our efforts, but in the last 3-5 years is impossible to achieve this goal, need at least 10 years.
The high cost of the battery for $33000 to wind the meager profits, even if it won the $7500 tax credit. Nissan to battery prices did not comment, but said the first generation to the wind and do not have any profit. Only when the 2013 implementation of the battery element mass production, can profit.
Nissan think that they can reduce the cost of the battery through the expansion of production scale. In the soil of wheat in Turkey that, an annual production capacity of battery production factory 200000 units being built nissan.
Johnson Controls battery department person in charge Alex Molinaroli have a lot of confidence in 5 years reduced by half the battery production cost. "As one of the world's largest battery manufacturer, we will improve the efficiency of management, reduce waste and reduce management cost on the compression cost, rather than at the cost of research and development on the." Alex Molinaroli said.
But some scientists and manufacturers are not so confident. Because more than 30% of the cost of the battery from the metal, such as nickel, manganese, cobalt (a very small part only of lithium metal material. )
A report in Science Research Institute issued at the beginning of the paper, metal prices will not be reduced with the expansion of production of battery, but because of increased demand pushed up. The report said, although from 2000 to 2008, computer and mobile phone lithium battery production costs fell by 35%, but in recent years there is no longer continue to lower the price.
The major research institute and the Toyota Corporation have claimed that the United States Department of energy's goal is not operable. A special study of battery production cost academic association said, should cost cut half will take at least 20 years, 3-5 years to be unable to achieve. It is reported, this academic research association is composed of 12 experts in the field of battery.
The report says, the battery package costs accounted for the major part of the total cost of the battery, and almost no decline in space. In addition, the battery contains electronic controller to control the electronic sensor voltage transmission and regulation of cell heat. These electronic products is the scale of production, the further expansion of the scale of decline has little effect on the cost of.
Senior manager of a battery manufacturing plant that battery assembly workers, labor cost is relatively high, because the pressure they need more training than the general workers, business more mastery. This means that the labor cost this piece is also very difficult to come down.
Toyota CEO and its global chief engineer also believes that, based on the experience of their nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium batteries prices will fall sharply skeptical. Battery consulting agency chief Menahem Anderman said, "even in the next 10 years, it will be difficult to achieve significant reductions in battery costs. In order to meet the reliability, safety, long lasting battery standard, we do not know also need to increase the amount of investment. Now thinking about cutting costs, it will be the 3 standards to adversely affect."
